Vacancy rates for industrial and logistics properties in Greater Copenhagen have risen from a record low of just above 2 per cent in 2022 to just under 6 per cent year to date in 2025, which is still below the 2013 and 2014 peak of 7 to 8 per cent. The increase can be partly attributed to false vacancies, strong rental growth and a shrinking supply of suitable space.
Vacancy rates for industrial and logistics properties in Greater Copenhagen have fluctuated considerably over the past decade. Vacancy peaked at around 7 to 8 per cent in 2013 and 2014. It then fell year by year, reaching just above 2 per cent in 2022, which is the lowest level in the period. Since then, vacancies have increased again, reaching just under 6 per cent year to date in 2025. While this may appear to be a clear sign of weaker demand, the development is more nuanced.
A part of the explanation is false vacancy. This occurs when a tenant terminates their lease but continues to pay rent during the notice period, while the landlord lists the property as available. Statistically, the lease is vacant. However, from a financial perspective, the lease still produces income, and in many cases a new tenant is already lined up.
Another factor is the strong rental growth. An increase in costs has characterised the market over the past 5-7 years. As landlords charge more, some tenants are prompted to move out. Compared to a decade ago, rent levels have more than doubled, and we expect this trend to continue.
In prime areas such as Avedøre Holme and Kirstinehøj, net rents have risen from around DKK 350 per square metre eight years ago to approximately DKK 750-800 per square metre today. In some locations, levels of around DKK 1,000 per square metre are now seen as realistic within a few years.
Once market rents have increased to this extent, landlords may be incentivised to accept a period of vacancy in order to re-let at full market rent. Furthermore, some tenants are taken aback by the extent of the increase when their contractual rent is brought closer to current market levels. These tenants may choose to relocate to cheaper space, accept a lower standard or, in some cases, purchase rather than lease in order to have more control over future occupancy costs.
The supply side also plays a role. In the capital region, several older industrial areas have been converted, or are in the process of being converted, for residential use. This reduces the amount of land available for industrial and logistics purposes, adding an element of scarcity to the remaining industrial areas. At the same time, more companies are choosing to become owner-occupiers. Over the past year, several industrial and logistics properties in the DKK 10-30 million range that were previously empty have been sold to users.
For investors, lenders and other market participants, the recent increase in vacancy within the industrial and logistics area in Greater Copenhagen should not automatically be interpreted as a sign of a weak market. In many cases the figures reflect a combination of false vacancy, rent reversion and a gradually shrinking supply of industrial land rather than a loss of underlying demand.
When assessing acquisitions, disposals or refinancings in this segment, it is helpful to clearly distinguish between empty space and false vacancy to quantify the potential for rent increases upon re-letting and to consider the effect of local planning and the conversion of industrial areas on the long-term supply of comparable space. This provides a more accurate basis for evaluating risk, pricing and business plans for assets.
At Gorrissen Federspiel, we closely follow developments in the industrial and logistics market. Our M&A Real Estate specialists advise on acquisitions, disposals, financing and development projects involving industrial and logistics properties and they are available to discuss any real estate-related matters.